Against Ohio State, Illinois Has Opportunity To Change Course

Now that the College Bowl Season has finally come to an end, America will shift its impatient gaze toward basketball, and many of them will watch the marquee match up of the night: No.5 Ohio State on the road against Illinois. If somehow, in some way, the Illini can pull the upset, they will have assuaged many a fear about getting into the tournament, and made a significant statement.

Problem is, Ohio State is the prohibitive favorite in this game, and frankly still the favorite to win the Big Ten running away. They are the most complete teams in the Big Ten, with one of the most well regarded centers, scorers at every position and are riding a hot streak of Big Ten championships (four of the last six. Seriously folks.)

They have a team that is loaded with recruiting "gets" already own wins against the likes of top 10 Duke and No 19 Florida, have a shooting percentage of about 50% for the season, and score about 80 points a game. They are a very good team, that have not been beaten when at full strength or unhindered by fouls.

That said, this is just the sort of game that Bruce Weber and the Illini very well could jump up and pull the upset. It happened two years ago against a top ten MSU team and the top ten Buckeyes. It very nearly happened last year against the Buckeyes and Purdue, and it has already almost happened this season against Missouri. So why not have one of those games where emotion and preparation propel a team to an unlikely win.

But its more than just emotion and history that give Illinois a chance against Ohio State, the Buckeyes also offer a look that few others will this season, that the Illini could take advantage of.

We know very well that Meyers Leonard has been frustrated lately. Smaller teams from St Bonnies to Northwestern to Nebraska have sent an ever increasing number of defenders against him to try and and neutralize his scoring advantage, and to force the wings to actually make jump shots. It is a game plan that has led to Illinois turning the ball over at an amazing pace, and reducing Meyers' effectiveness overall. But it is a plan that we probably wont see against Ohio State. With Jared Sullinger, a player just as strong, and just as talented as Leonard, the Buckeyes probably wont think they will need to roll the extra help onto the big man down low. After all it is that defensive swarming that has opened the doors up for the Joseph Bertrand renaissance.

I desperately want to see Sullinger and Leonard go at each other one on one, not just because I think Meyers can hold his own on the defensive end, but because I think we could see his offensive numbers explode again. The last time a top tier center guarded Meyers one on one, it was Robert Sacre, and Meyers got 21 points and six boards. If Ohio State decides they can lock down the wings so as not to risk a Brandon Paul or Joe Bertrand points bonanza, Meyers could actually have an opportunity to establish himself down low and work his game once again.

That wont be enough though. For Illinois to win this game, the Illini will have to play a nearly perfect game. That means that extra pressure will be placed on Tracy Abrams and Brandon Paul to play mistake free basketball. This team turns the ball over as much as it did against Northwestern and Nebraska, it loses, without question. Being without Sam Maniscalco will hurt the offense, losing an outside shooting threat and a safe ball handler, but on defense with the likes of Aaron Craft and William Buford making moves to the basket, even with a good ankle, Sam would have a tough time getting good defensive pressure.

DJ has a bum wrist right now for sure, and we saw that clearly in his shots against the Cornhuskers. But his feet can still move and even if he doesn't add much more than a pass or a dribble on one end, his status as the best shut down defender makes him a must play.

Finally the Illini will need to have a realization of some of the hints of talent we have seen from the freshmen. Nanna Egwu needs to play like he did early against Northwestern. Tracy needs to show more of what he showed against Purdue and Nebraska. Myke Henry needs to go off for a cluster of points like we know he can.

All of that and a little more of Joe Bertrand breaking ankles and getting buckets, and the Illini could win.

Its no secret that in spite of getting wins, Illinois hasn't exactly played well the last three weeks. This is an opportunity though to undo all of the nay saying from jerks like me. A win here will go a long way to shut up those who are doubting that the program is headed in the right direction. Win this game, and Illinois will have a legitimate chance to make a run for the conference championship. Its asking a lot I know, but much stranger things have happened.