Illinois Looks To Move Up To 2-0 South Dakota State

Week 2's Serious Business once again finds the Illini at home against what we should probably assume is an overmatched non-conference opponent, South Dakota State. (Who really are in the FCS, I checked.)  Let it not be said that I completely disregard the talent and ability of the Jackrabbits, who not that long ago played the Minnesota Gophers, down to the wire in a rather ugly 16-13 UM win. That was an Adam Weber quarterbacked team mind you, the same quarterback who beat the Illini in another unwatchable game. So by the transitive property of wins and losses, the Illini are probably only about two touchdowns better than SDSU.

Last week in a match up with Southern Utah University, SDSU edged out a 1 point victory, in a game that saw 800 yards of total offense, six total turnovers, and was finally decided on a failed two point conversion attempt. Based on this admittedly small sample size, ugly seems to be this team's MO.

One can reasonably assume that in a game between two teams in the same division, decided by just one point, we will see more or less what a team is made of on a level playing field. SDSU's quarterback  Thomas O'Brien threw two interceptions and completed 67% of his passes for three touchdowns and 279 yards.

While their starting running back did run 28 times for over 100 yards, it seems as though the bread and butter of this team is the passing game. The defensive secondary is the weakness of Illinois this year, at least so far, but the strength is still the defensive line, do not expect to see the same amount of time given for O'Brien to complete his passes.

Another noteworthy stat from the lone SDSU game from this season is how many yards through the air their defense gave up. Southern Utah's quarterback may have thrown three interceptions, but he also tallied 340 yards and three touchdowns. Except perhaps when selling out on a turnover, SDSU is weak in the secondary too, and coming off a very strong week for A.J. Jenkins and Darius Milines, look for Nathan Scheelhaase to go deep early and often.

Because of the nature of this game, and how heavily I and others are favoring Illinois, the normal offensive approach might only apply for the first few possessions. If the Illini run up an early lead, they will likely keep the ball on the ground for much of the second half, and probably wont be a sign of future run/pass ratios. So for the first five possessions only I am looking for the following:

Passing on first down. This offense has been run first since the days of Pierre Thomas, but given how the passing game for Scheelhaase and his receivers has developed going back to last season, I want to see more weight given to that side of the equation. Certain aspects of last week's game should also give us all pause about the running game this year. Jason Ford had 22 carries but seemed to have just as many bad runs as he had good. When he dances around looking for a seam instead of ramming straight ahead and creating one, he is going to lose yards more often than gain them, and seeing him taken down for a safety has only felt worse to me as the week has progressed. No one else on the team has the experience to be relied upon like Ford can though so hoping one of the other backs will leapfrog him probably will have to wait at least three weeks. On top of all of that, in a switch from last year, the offensive line seemed to be better at pass blocking than run blocking, so all of the trends seem to be pointing at a pass heavy p/r ratio.

Reilly O'Toole. Since the red shirt is off for his freshman year, there is no reason not to put him in for significant playing time in what should be a one sided game. In fact I would be happiest if we saw him get lots of snaps with the best receivers on the field as well, to see what this kid can really do. But, if I see a designed run with O'Toole, I am throwing things at the TV, most likely my shoe.

A quality outing by the defensive secondary. Trulon Henry, Justin Green and Terry Hawthorne have a lot of speed and talent between them, and it still baffles me how this unit can give up nearly 300 yards to a Sun Belt team. (My elitism is showing.) It is really too much to ask I think for a dominant performance by the secondary, if for no other reason the amount of times they will be thrown at by SDSU, somewhere north of 35, I imagine, but it is perfectly reasonable to hope for no big plays. Completed passes for 65 and 35 yards last week is unacceptable, and against  SDSU, any thing longer than 20 is a disappointment.

All in all this should be a comfortable win for the Illini, giving us a 2-0 start and plenty of warm up for the big Saturday night game in Champaign against Arizona State, who very well could be a top 25 team by then.

Prediction: Illinois 45, SDSU 7