Illinois Fighting Illini Arkansas State Preview: The 2011 Season Begins

As is tradition around here, the preview for the FCS game will be an elitist one, where I really don't analyze the opponent with any real intensity. Sue me, but if we actually have to worry about any of the match ups against an FCS team, then we are doomed anyway. (Besides, you can't get FCS teams to play against in NCAA on the Xbox.)

So lets focus on what we know, and what we care about, the Illini.

First and foremost, we want to see how much Nathan Scheelhaase has advanced this off season. Scheel played some very good games last year, and gave Illini fans a lot to be hopeful about, but games like the ones he had against Missouri, (1 TD 3 INT, 9-23, 81 yds) MSU ( 3 INT 15-27 for 141) and Fresno State (5-16 for 61 yards) should give everyone pause.

But Scheel did finish the season with much better passing numbers as a freshman than his predecessor, Juice Williams, totaling 1825 yards, 58.7% completion, and 18-7 TD to INT. Reasonable hopes for this year are a marginal improvement in completion percentage, say up to 63-68%, and more touchdowns with fewer INTs.

Most of all, I want to see Scheelhaase run less. Fewer scrambles because of protection breakdowns and hopefully fewer designed runs. The last thing we need to see is an injury to this kid. 

Which brings us to our next point, offensive line play. Jeff Allen was an All Big Ten selection last year, and he is just one of four starters returning to the line this year. There is no question that this line was great at opening running lanes last year, just take a look at all the records that Mikel Leshoure set, but pass protection was another matter entirely. Nathan Scheelhaase was sacked 22 times last year, some because he held onto the ball too long, but even more because protection broke down. Hopefully extra attention was payed to this aspect of the game in the off season, because the Illini don't have a Mikel Leshoure to fall back on this year.

What they do have though are plenty of players vying to become the new Mikel Leshoure. With Jason Ford we have a capable and reliable replacement, who despite off season troubles will likely be seeing the most carries this year. Ford is a bigger back that lacks the breakaway speed that Leshoure often showed off, and to complement him Zook and Petrino will be giving Troy Pollard (a Rose Bowl season holdover) Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young each their own shots at carrying the ball. Against the defense of Arkansas State, don't be surprised to see all four on Saturday.

The departure in talent is more visible on the defensive side of the ball, as middle linebacker Martez Wilson and DT Corey Liuget are long gone to the NFL. The front seven were critical to the Illini winning their first bowl since the 90's, and without those two putting pressure up the middle this year, the unit will see fewer sacks and more run yards given up. The stars that do return though will hopefully make up for some of those shortcomings. Akeem Spence had a fantastic freshman season, and looks like he is on a similar career arc as Liuget. Trulon Henry, Arrelious Benn's brother and standout safety in his own right, is easily the hardest hitter on the team, and led the team in INTs last year with 3. 

Taking over in the MLB, the most important position in the Illini defense is Ian Thomas, who held the position as a sophomore, filling in for the aforementioned Wilson. Thomas is an experienced and talented senior, and is nearly the entire reason I am still optimistic about the defense this year.

CB Terry Hawthorne still might yet be the force of nature we know he should be, but the injuries over the last couple years may have slowed his progress and I don't want to count on him for too much just yet.

Given the up and down nature of the defense last year, early dominance followed by games like the one we saw in Ann Arbor, I would be happy to live somewhere in the middle, I am happy with the D not winning any games for us, provided they don't also lose any.

What I want to see most of all are solid tackles, very few errors and just sound defensive play. Even when this unit was killing it last year, they didn't get many turnovers.

Since the FCS game is the one where we see so many backups, it is common for us to see a back up QB play as much as an entire quarter, and just which back up we see will be very telling. If highly touted Reilly O'Toole burns his shirt Saturday night, that might mean that there will be a real quarterback competition over the next two seasons. If Miles Osei comes out and O'toole stays on the bench then the team is Scheelhaase's for as long as he wants it, and O'Toole might start examining his options for transfers. It seems to be a lot riding on such a simple decision but that's football.

Most of all though I am interested in seeing Illinois steamroll an opponent to start the year, get out of the game free of injury, and to start the year at 1-0 for the first time in what seems like forever.

Oskie wow-wow, Go Illini.