2011 NCAA Tournament Preview: The Fighting Illini and UNLV

Brace yourselves for it now, because everything from here on out, from strategy to defensive match ups to bench production is contingent on one maddening factor. The Illini need to make shots, if they make their shots they will probably win, if they don't, they will probably lose. Shot making isn't something you can really prepare for, and if all of your players aren't hitting their shots, there isn't much you can do with this team to overcome that. That is the lens that we have to view this game through.

Now then. Provided that the Illini will hit their shots at somewhere around say 45% percent, right at their season average, I think that they can create enough opportunities for the shooters to beat UNLV.

We know fast teams, disruptive full court pressing teams, like UNLV, Missouri, Clemson, Dayton and Western Kentucky have given the Illini problems over the past three seasons. But when they have lost these games they haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard from the field when they did. This year when the Illini lost to Missouri, they shot only 38%. Against Dayton in the NIT last year, 37%. The lone exception to this rule of shooting sub 40% was WKU, where the Illini shot 49% from the field some how, but were burned by too many three pointers.

Good news is this, UNLV doesn't take a lot of three pointers, they get most of their offensive production off of missed shots and turnovers in transition.  So my analysis of how the Illini beat the Rebels is simple: make your shots and get offensive rebounds when you miss, and above all else, take care of the ball.

Length wise this is a good match up for Illinois, as Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale should at least have reach against whomever they are guarding. Speed wise it is a very bad match. Tisdale we know has trouble getting up and down the floor with the faster teams. So if the Illini miss a shot and don't come down with it, they are going to be looking at a lot of five on four situations.

On the other hand, if we can count of Tisdale to be in the right spot, he can be key to getting the right pass to break UNLV's press, leading to some easy buckets for the big man.

This is also a huge game for Mike Davis. Davis needs to hit his shots, and he needs to be all over the boards. Both he and Jereme Richmond can move with the Rebels most likely but they will have to fight to get in position in the post and convert consistently. Most of the pressure on defense is going to come at the perimeter, as UNLV looks for the steal on the inlet pass, get by that and there should be an easy two points on the other side.

As big as it is for our guards to be a threat from three point territory, it is their passing that will be most important. UNLV makes its money off of guard mistakes, and will try and goad you into making a lazy toss. Demetri McCamey has been looked to for the big scoring this year, but if he can pass like he did last season, and at times this season, it will go much farther than simply scoring his standard 15 points. They are likely going to over-commit on Demetri and hope the other guards either don't come over fast enough to bail him out, or that he will make a desperation pass that they can intercept easily.

If the Illini play well, like they did for say 32 minutes against the Wolverines, they can and will beat this UCLA team. Defensively, the Illini should be able to take away their three point shooting fairly well, and if Brandon Paul and D.J Richardson find a bit of consistency, they should be fine on the perimeter.

I have confidence in this team, that they will at least get into position to win this game, but again it is all contingent upon the Illini hitting their shots. The drought the Illini went through against Michigan was partially yes, that they slowed things down, and yes that they took too many three pointers when they should have worked for a two. But the shots that Illinois missed during that stretch were for the most part, good ones. Some of those three's I was angry about the Illini taking were open shots. If they hit one or two of those, it wouldn't have been an issue. You can't change your personality now, and this is a jumpshooting team. So make your jumpers and get back on defense, and it will take care of itself.