Fighting Illini Basketball Bubble Watch: In Which My Paranoia Is Completely Justified.

I don't know if any of you recall the post I made earlier this week, previewing the Illini's outlook for Selection Sunday, but apparently I was even more prescient than normal in my prediction of the way the Illini might not make the tournament this year. I said

In order for the Illini to be in real trouble, I think is for there to be enough mid major upsets to cut a bid from the Big Ten, and for Michigan and Michigan State to do enough in the tournament to pass up Illinois resume wise. The good news is, the Illini are in a safer position than last year, and can only get one more loss. A single win gets them in hands down, and could allow them to climb as high as a seven seed in the bracket.

A single wont mean the Illini are out either, as losing to Michigan would not be a bad loss, and would only push them to a season split with the Wolverines, giving neither any great advantage over the other.  UM and MSU are both projected as 11 seeds by Lunardi today, with MSU playing in Dayton, even if both of those teams win and win big in Indianapolis, I don't see Illinois falling past a nine or ten seed.

Aren't I a scamp? Laying out exactly what happened this weekend more or less, and still only thinking that the Illini are just "in trouble?"  You may also recall that I had another post, instructing Illini fans on how they needed to direct their rooting interests this weekend.

Penn State is sitting on the same seed that the Gophers were last season, when they made a great run to the championship. PSU has the No. 11 seed Indiana Hoosiers, then Wisconsin, then probably Purdue standing in their way to Sunday. And that is just the thing, the Nittany Lions aren't in the field right now, but wins on Thursday Friday and Saturday would be more than enough to get them in ahead of either Michigan Michigan State or Illinois. Lets not forget also, they have Talor Battle, who will be playing for the chance to be in his only NCAA tournament, ever. He is a well documented terror, that seems to enjoy destroying the Illini, so why not have one more jab directed their way out the door

Scary stuff, am I right?

Well thankfully there are other factors at work this weekend than simply upsets in the Big Ten. The NCAA Bubble is a complicated and weak one, and the semi finals and finals from around the entire NCAA have had even more implications on the Illini's chances than simply Penn State making a deep run.

The SEC: according to the experts the two SEC teams that needed to get big movement out of this weekend were Alabama and Georgia. In a most fortuious turn of events the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide were matched up in the Friday quarterfinals, thus eliminating one of the two automatically. Alabama the winner of the two was also gracious enough to lose big to Kentucky today in the semi finals. According to those who claim to know these sort of things, that just ain't enough to get the Tide in the field. SUCCESS!

The ACC: Another semifinal slate that had huge bubble implications, with perennial favorites and locks North Carolina and Duke taking on unsure bubble dwellers Clemson and Virginia Tech, respectively. North Carolina needed overtime to do it, but eventually took down Clemson, thanks to a forty point performance from Harrison Barnes. Duke had much less trouble dispatching Tech, taking down the Hokies 77-63. I don't know how much difference there is between Illinois and any of these teams, but the fact is having either of these teams wins puts the Illini at an obvious disadvantage, so we will call it MARGINAL SUCCESS.

A10: The Atlantic 10 is currently predicted to have three bids, Temple and Xavier automatically, and Richmond as probably maybe on the bubble team. This tournament could have gone better for the Illini, Dayton has made the final, and has no route to the tournament without winning the whole thing. Temple and Richmond were matched up in the other semifinal, and with the Richmond win, the A10 probably has guaranteed themselves a third team in. If Dayton wins tomorrow, it will be four. I think this is NOT A SUCCESS.

That said, it seems, looking around the league that really only two conference championship games have the possibility of stealing bids right now. The aforementioned Atlantic Ten, and tonight's WAC championship game, between Utah State and Boise State. That's two maximum bids that can be stolen from the bubble, and if the Illini are going to be among the last two teams in, then so be it, but I would like to think that Illinois has slightly more comfort room than that. The Big Ten conference could very well end up with seven teams in the tournament, not all that surprising considering the conference is second in RPI.

None of this will stop me from climbing up the wall tomorrow night though, we will all have to stay tuned.