Fighting Illini Basketball: Tempo, Talent and Offense.

Between this season and last season, Illini fans have been pulling their hair out. The Illini missed the NCAA tournament last year, after several massive letdowns against bad opponents.  This year seems to be heading down a startlingly similar road. Losses to RPI basement dwellers and a difficult schedule ahead have made a one time lock in the Dance now in doubt.

The question is, how has this team gotten itself into this bind, both this year and last year, and how were the Illini so successful (at least comparatively)  in 2009? How did the 2009 team roll into the Dance with a 5 seed, and seriously challenge a Final Four MSU team for the Big Ten title, while this year's team is .500 in conference?

There is, without question, much more natural basketball talent on the 2010/11 edition of the Illini than was  on 08/09. Look at the starting five for that year, Seniors Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham,  and sophomores Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale, the latter two being first time starters. The key replacements off of the bench were Calvin Brock, Jeff Jordan, Richard Semrau, and Dominique Keller. There was exactly one top 100 player on the court, Demetri McCamey, until halfway through the year Alex Legion became eligible to play. This was a team that was very offensively limited, played very good defense, and passed the ball very well.

The 2009 team was also even more reliant on its starting five than this year's team. Four starters, the three guards and Mike Davis, averaged 30 minutes or more per game. Tisdale was next with 24  minutes a game, and then there is a rapid drop off to Brock's 17 on down.

I said once that the 2008/09 season was the best year of coaching that Bruce Weber had ever had.  He had a team with seniors with limited talent, especially on offense, and many underclassmen that could should but could not create their own shot. Believe it or not, it became Weber's most coachable roster, in terms of doing exactly what he wanted (kind of unbelievable I know.) Weber's 2008/09 team became an intensively defensive team, holding Big Ten opponents under 55 points NINE times. On offense the team was methodical, mostly because the only player who could create or be a threat on his own, McCamey, was too inconsistent, and the team's PG, Frazier was completely ignored by opposing defenses.

Pass, pass, pass, 15 foot jump shot. It was a site to see, as Tisdale and Davis perfected a mid range offense complimented by perimeter shooting from Meacham and McCamey. The Illini were so effective on defense and so carefully selective on offense that they were 44% shooting in conference while holding their opponents to 39.4. It was a recipe that resulted in 24 wins, 11 in the Big Ten. Slow, low scoring very physical games.

How did we win so many games then but lose so many now?

The temptation is to say, "we need to be more like we were in 2009." There are probably several aspects of that team that this team should try and emulate, specifically the leadership and determination of the seniors Frazier and Meacham. But intangibles aside, this team needs to forget about 2009 entirely, especially the coaching staff, because running this team like 2009 has muted many of the advantages the team has over their opponents.

Where in 2009 the team was capped by a short bench, too many inexperienced players, and generally offensively limited guards, this team is exactly the opposite. Demetri McCamey has (or at least one time was) an offensive force that defenses must key on. Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis are much more experienced, (although they still lack strength around the rim) and the bench is now much deeper with talent, with scorers like Brandon Paul, Jereme Richmond and even occasionally Bill Cole ready to light it up on offense.

Running the team with a methodical, slowly set up offense to get a very open jump shot caps the advantages this team has over weaker opponents, leaving the team at the mercy of hot and cold jump shooting to win games. When you play against UICs and Indianas, you don't need to work for the perfect possession, because generally if given enough opportunities, you will outscore them from any position. The common thread of UIC Indiana and the PSU loss is that the Illini shot poorly from the field and generally didn't score (less than 60 points in all three games.)

How much of this is coaching and how much is player motivated I can't quite tell. We know Weber has pushed McCamey to go to the hoop more often, and for Tisdale and Davis to try and work harder to get open more down low. But in general the majority of Illini possessions flow through a set play, with very little pushing of the tempo and transition offense. Of course opposing teams don't want the Illini to push tempo, and often clear out their defense to prevent it.  But there is another difference between 2009 and 2011 that needs to be examined here as to why simply shooting the ball earlier in the shot clock will help the Illini.

In 2009 the Illini could not rebound very well, especially on the offensive end, which in part is why when they took a shot, they had better well make it. Davis could rebound then, and still can now, but mostly on defense. Tisdale is more or less in the same place in terms of rebounds as he was then. The difference is now we have Jereme Richmond. Richmond, especially in the last few games has come alive, and provides the Illini an advantage as a rebounder that they have not had before.

If the Illini shoot earlier in their offense, without necessarily relying on the three screens that are sometimes necessary to get Demetri free, they now have a much better chance of getting a rebound and converting it with someone like Davis or Richmond. This should be the case especially against teams where the Illini have a significant size and skill advantage over. The illini shot 33% against Indiana on possessions that took the entire 35 and were supposedly the best looks you can get on that trip. If you are working that hard for a shot and still only hitting a third of them, there is no advantage over simply shooting on the first half good look you get. Earlier shots mean more shots overall, and a more chances for you talented players to perform well.

When you have a talent deficit, it is to your advantage to lower the total amount of possessions, lower the number of shots your opponent can take, and hope you don't turn the ball over and the other team doesn't shoot a high percentage. When you have the talent advantage, it is just the opposite, you want more shots for your post players to bring down as rebounds and convert into points.

This may only be the best option against teams that aren't as tall or as talented as the Illini, but really aren't those the games this team has struggled most in? If the Illini push the tempo for higher scores in UIC, PSU and IU, are we even wondering about the tournament right now?

Fact is, the team needs a new approach, because until then, we will all be waiting for another "off game" where we lose in a score in the lower 50's. You can bet on it.