Fighting Illini Basketball Preview: Michigan State and GameDay

Last year's upset win over the Spartans in the Assembly Hall was great;  ESPN Game Day on hand, Digger Phelps, Rece Davis and the rest watching from the sideline, all the excitement in the building, it all seems so long ago now.

That was the signature win the Illini had been looking for all season, and following it up with a win on the road against Wisconsin, everything seemed peachy, until the Illini then dropped all but two of their last eight games, and they landed in the NIT.

Things are very, very different now for the Michigan State Spartans, who ended that season with fantastic tournament run that ended in the FInal Four, but now like the Illini, they are fighting for their tournament lives.

The pacing and flow of this game should favor the Illini offense somewhat, as the Spartans like to keep the tempo up, and make for a game with a lot of possessions. I am confident now, given that there have been three straight games of pretty competent scoring offense, that the Illini wont have too much problem at least being productive, what I am worried about is giving away too many possessions to the home team.

In the last three games the Illini have turned the ball over 12, 14 and 12 times, and have not beaten their opponent in on offensive rebounds in any of these games (tied with Michigan.) But in two very close wins and a ten point loss the Illini have out shot their opponent from the field each time, even against a seemingly unstoppable Purdue team. The problem is, in each of those games the opponent has taken more shots or taken more free throws.

Extra care must be taken with the ball on Saturday, because Spartans are not so guard depleted as Minnesota, and not likely to hit such a shooting skid as Michigan did Wednesday.

On defense, I again like the match ups on the perimeter with our guards. Kalin Lucas is scary, yes, but even now he isn't the threat he was as a sophomore. D.J Richardson and Brandon Paul are both very capable and disruptive defenders, and Bill Cole will sooner dive face first into the Breslin Center court than give up an open three on his man.

On the other side, we will need play that is close to what we saw from our big men up in Minnesota on defense, and hopefully not what we saw against Purdue. Davis, Tisdale, Richmond and likely Leonard are all going to get bumped and pushed and hacked all day long. They are just going to have to fight through it, because that's what playing in the Big Ten is, especially on the road at MSU.

This game is the best chance for the Illini to take a road game, with trips to Columbus and West Lafayette still looming. If the Illini lose those games, but hold court at home with Iowa and Indiana (no guarantees guys) the MSU game is the deciding factor of whether the Illini finish at or above .500 for the Big Ten season, and if they reach the important 20 win plateau. MSU has faded, but are still a tough nut to crack at home, and anything less than a great effort by the whole team will result in a loss for the Illini.

That said, I liked to see that the three best players from the UM win were the seniors, another big game from Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale, plus some mistake free ball from Jereme Richmond and Brandon Paul, and I like the chances to come away with a win. Illini 70- MSU 67