Illinois at Minnesota Preview: Illini and Gophers Both Grasping For Wins

It is tough for me to say what is a good match up for this team anymore. The scouting report against the hasn't changed, and what beat the Illini in December still beat them last Saturday. It all depends I suppose on how well equipped these teams are to execute the strategy that has routinely beaten the Illini on the road this season.

The question is whether or not the Gophers can beat up the Illini in the post with very physical play (they can) if they can control the flow of the game with a methodical, high points per possession offense, (almost certainly) and if their perimeter defense can stifle the Illini guards (unknown.)

Minnesota is running without standout guards Al Nolen (injury) and Devoe Joseph (transfer) leaveing the just one starting guard from the team that beat the Illini in Champaign last year, Blake Hoffarber. That is good news for the Illini, because Devoe Joseph led the Gophers in scoring in last year's loss with 16 points, and the second leading scorer, Lawrence Westbrook, graduated.

Hoffarber, the former wing and three point specialist, has taken over at point guard, this is a good thing for the Illini as he is not a natural PG and turned the ball over four times against Ohio State.

Elsewhere on the court, the Gophers are quite formidable with post men. Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson are both true centers who will occasionally see the court at the same time, but with forwards Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams also seeing lots of minutes, they are extremely flexible in post men combinations.

With so few guards and so many forwards and centers, it shouldn't be surprising that the Gophers ran a starting lineup of Sampson, Mbakwe and Williams against the Buckeyes, and will likely do the same tonight against the Illini.

The relatively high production the Illini have seen from forward Mike Davis might disappear this game, with so many other large bodies crowding the glass, and the extra muscle from the likes of Sampson may be too much for Tisdale to be much of a scoring threat.

The advantage that this does provide is at the guard position. Between Demetri McCamey, D.J. Richardson, Brandon Paul and Jereme Richmond, someone should be able to exploit the defensive weaknesses of Hoffarber and freshman Austin Hollins. When the Illini have three guards on the floor, they will have a forward going up against one of these three, and a switch off of a screen should be enough to get a really favorable match up for some one, and we will just see if they can translate that into points.

This is also a game the Illini could finally bring their offensive tempo up somewhat, because with three big men on the floor, the Gophers will almost surely be at a speed disadvantage to the Illini. The Gophers committed 19 turnovers in their loss to Ohio State, and the Illini should be eager to turn those turnovers into transition points.

In a larger sense though, the Illini need to desperately avoid the slow starts they have suffered lately. In their losses to Northwestern and Indiana, they let the opponents get out to a large early lead before rallying and bringing the game close. Outside of the first five minutes of each half, the Illini have played well enough to win. The problem is, the hole they dig themselves into has been too deep and  leaving a game close on the road in the Big Ten is a recipe for the disaster that the Illini have seen three or four times now.

Weber is right when he says the team is playing too tentatively, but that may be just another symptom of being under too much pressure to execute the offense in a certain way, and only when the team falls behind dramatically and desperation takes over does the team seem to loosen up. I don't really think this has much to do with the Weber yelling thing as many people seem to think, as far as I can tell, the Seniors ignore Weber while they are on the court and have done so since last year (for better or for worse.) For the underclassmen, say Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, this may have more of an effect,

If you listen to what Weber mostly says from the sideline, there is very little in the way of specifics that he is yelling at his players. He might yell SIDEWINDER! when he is calling the play, or RUN MIKE DAVIS or something similar to that, but very rarely is he commanding every player to go exactly where they need to be.

If tentativeness is coming from anywhere on this team, it is from players not wanting to overstep their place as underclassmen on a team full of experienced seniors. Brandon and DJ routinely look to Demetri, no matter what, not wanting to take a shot in an offense that is designed around McCamey. Demetri is a fantastic player, but I can't imagine he would rather have to take a contested long three while being double teamed instead of having BP drive into the paint.

The team does need to loosen up its offense, a great deal, but it is going to take someone taking the initiative for it to happen, and more than just one player at a time. Brandon Paul did it against Northwestern, Mike Davis did it against IU and Penn State. Initiative means taking risks and not trying to go the safe route, because the safe route has been shut for some time now.

If the Illini are more risky on offense, and willing to exploit the advantages they have tonight, they will win, but then again that has been the case in a great many of their losses this year. This is a win that would be very valuable for the Illini, beating a Minnesota team that is reeling with three straight losses, and is in a similar position in terms  of the NCAA tournament. Win tonight and get a tie breaker over them for the committee, grab a much needed road victory, and change the math for the rest of February. Lose and they math stays the same, needing to win out all the home games.