Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers Preview: Trying not to fall flat again.

If you had to choose a team and a place to bounce back from a close loss, somewhere near the bottom of my list would be, Wisconsin after an overtime loss at the Kohl Center.  I suppose I don't really need to explain why, the Badgers under Bo Ryan have been extremely tough to beat at home, and smart basketball fans usually mark the trip to Madison down as an L before the season even starts.

There is hope though, because if any team has shown over the last 10 years they can steal wins in Madison, it's the Illini, who won three of the six conference losses suffered under Ryan's tenure, last year, 04/05 and 05/06. So at least this group of players knows what it takes to get a win in the Kohl Center, an out of this world performance by their point guard and  a good supporting effort from everyone else.

At that win at Wisconsin last year, Demetri McCamey scored 27 points and had seven assists, with Mike Tisdale scoring 19. In that game having just two players take all of the offensive load themselves was enough, I don't know if it will be this year.

When the Badgers came to the Assembly Hall just a week and a half ago they missed a shocking amount of open shots, going 21-60 on the night, and chucked up way way too many threes going 10-35 from beyond the arc. This was an example of poor shot selection and generally poor shooting, had they made a just slightly higher percentage of their threes, the game would have been much closer. I don't know if we can expect the same over reliance on the outside shot or as cold of shooting from the Badgers all over again, that is probably too much to hope for.

The good news, I suppose, is that in their win over Wisconsin Champaign this year, the Illini did it in spite of Wisky's two top players having pretty good scoring nights, both Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor had 19, slightly better than both of their season averages. The Illini did however benefit from Taylor being in foul trouble for most of the game and eventually fouling out, though it didn't effect his minutes, playing for 38.

On the road, it is unlikely that the calls will roll against the home team, so don't expect foul trouble for either of the star Badgers.

The question is, unfortunately, will we shoot. If this team shoots really well, it has a really good chance of winning this game. The offense when humming, is very, very efficient, and when combined with actually a steadily improving defense, it is more than enough to overcome other teams.Even on one of our very down shooting nights, the defense was still able to keep the game in the 50's at Penn State, despite allowing Talor Battle to go off for 26.

If the team can more or less keep Leuer and Taylor from going too over board scoring and say shoot somewhere between the 70% against Northwestern and the 41% against Penn State, the Illini can and should win this game.

What is interesting about our shooting percentage, and our wins and losses, is how they correlate with the performance of D.J. Richardson. In the loss to Penn State, D.J. scored no points, and was 0-2 from three. In the loss to Missouri he had 7 points, but was 1-6 from three.  In the loss to UIC, DJ scored 13 points, but was again just 1-6 from three. Against Texas this doesn't quite hold as true, as DJ scored 15 points, and was 3-9 from deep.

Compare these performances to some of Illinios' most dominating wins. North Carolina: 3-3 from deep and 11 points, Gonzaga, 2-5 from deep and 15 points, Iowa 5-7 for 17 points. Demetri McCamey is still unquestionably the most important player to this offense, but quite a bit of the team's success seems also to be linked to D.J's play. As the team's primary defender and the main outside shooting threat, there is a lot being laid on his shoulders right now, I hope that it isn't too much. I think there really isn't going to be another option for defense, but the responsibility might be affecting his shooting. Is it any wonder that he might not have any legs left after chasing Talor Battle around the court for 31 minutes?

In this game the assignment will once again be Jordan Taylor, a very good passer and a dangerous scoring threat. it would be best if the rest of the offense can possibly pick up the slack for DJ, so there is less pressure to be so important on both ends of the court.