Going out on a limb: predictions for the coming Illini football season

Considering that I believed last year that the Illini would be at minimum 7-5, I doubt anyone is really clamoring to see just  was  brilliant football mind predicts for this season, and honestly, neither am I. As wrong as I was last year, I knew an awful lot about what I was supposed to expect from each unit, and could tell from game one who wasn't living up to their end of the bargain. This year, there is so much new, so much unknown that I am having a really tough time setting a good barometer for success. When the Illini were running the spread option, I was confident  in knowing (more or less) who screwed up if the play went bad, and who was playing especially well. I have not seen the receivers play in the Petrino offense before. I haven't seen this offensive line do this sort of pass blocking. I haven't seen this new quarterback, period.

If Scheelhaase  gets sacked on a five step drop, I can't guarantee I'll know for sure if it is due to the offensive line breaking down, the running back not picking up the block, the receivers being late on their routes, or Scheelhaase himself hesitating.  It is a lot not to know. That said, I honestly think this team will be better than last year.

Phil Steele took a huge credibility hit last season when he put the Illini on the most improved teams list and even as a dark horse national championship team (what a wonderful and terrifying alternate history that would be.) So when Phil Steele says this team will be going to the Little Caesars Pizza Pizza  Crazy Bread Bowl in Detroit against Temple, I wonder if he just has some sort of fascination with Zook, or really just wants to move some product in the Chicagoland area, or perhaps there really is a chance the Illini will at least be moderately successful.  Six wins is a tall order for a team that won only three games last year, especially when eight of the nine teams that beat the Illini are still on the schedule this year. Lets take a look at that schedule and see just how difficult  finding three more wins might be.

 Immediately, I can easily say that Missouri, Ohio State, Penn State, and most probably Michigan State will be losses, and though I have been warned that Southern Illinois is a very good FCS team (ranked as the #6 last year I think) and NIU is no where near a pushover, if the Illini lose to either of these teams, I doubt they will win any Big Ten games, and this whole prediction thing will be pretty useless. Because that will be a catastrophe that even I don't want to contemplate,  I am going to mark these two games down as wins.

So, two wins and four losses, out of the gate, not a great start is it? In order to make a bowl the Illini will have to finish the second half of their season  with only two losses to give. The Illini beat Michigan and Minnesota last year, and lost to both Indiana and Purdue, and I think that to have a real chance of making a bowl, they have to win three of these four games.

Indiana is going to be weak on defense, and if the Illini don't befall their turnover laden performance last year, they should be able to handle the Hoosiers at home, I have to think having Purdue at home gives the Illini an upper hand here as well, especially since they have problems with their running backs and offensive line, if the Illini defense performs somewhere close to where its talent level suggests, the Illini should have a win here.

Michigan though, I think is bound to be better this year, and the QB combo of Denard Forcier/Tate Robinson (that was intentional btw) might end up being too much for the Illini.

Minnesota on the other hand, is in free fall, screaming toward the basement of the conference even faster than the Illini were last year, so I guess we will call this a wash.

Five wins and five losses, with two games to play, and how the Illini handle Northwestern at Wrigley Field and Fresno State will determine their bowl eligibility. The Illini lost to Fresno by the absolute slimmest of margins last year, and were probably should have won against Northwestern as well. These games could go either way, and I don't know if the Illini will go 2-0, 0-2, or 1-1 in that stretch, because both games are probably going to be decided by a touchdown or less. So there you have it, as committal as I will get, anywhere between 5-7 and 7-5, with an outside chance of a total catastrophe of 1-11 and a new coaching staff.

But then again, what do I know?