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Okay. so on my Monday I outlined my very detailed and incredibly speculative road for the Illini to right themselves and enhance their resume enough to get themselves off of the bubble and into the tournament. Tonight is the first opportunity for the team to deviate completely from that prescription and go completely off of the rails. Lose to Iowa and I am running full speed right back into my bunker, where it is safe and warm and things like facts and reality can't hurt me.

I have a few competing impulses in my brain right now. One is the optimistic Joe who thinks that the Illini will make it through this March rather unspectacularly but well enough to make the dance. The other Joe, the run to the hills Joe, says that tonight's game sets up rather well for the Hawkeyes, who are going to be overlooked by an Illini team that crushed them in Champaign but have been playing much better lately. Throw in that it is an Iowa home game, that the Illini will more than likely be looking ahead to the big prime time game against MSU on Saturday, and you have pessimist freak out Joe popping Tums like Dr. House pops Vicodin.

So as this blog is at least somewhat committed to rationality in sports analysis lets make a case for an Illini win

Case for Iowa

• They now have two Big Ten wins over Penn State and Indiana, two teams the Illini needed late game heroics to defeat
• Freshmen like D.J. Richardson have had trouble away from home
• It's $1 Hotdog night at Carver Hawkeye, so you know the place will be rocking with cheap meat
• Todd Lickliter's odd diatribe about the concept of competition may have confused his players into playing better.
• Illinois has been burned by no name players before specifically Purdue's Hart, Iowa is entirely composed of such players.
• Will be filled with motivation not to be embarrassed again (not a guarantee) 

Case for Illinois

• D.J. Richardson was the only Illini player in double figures in a game that was won handily
• Demetri McCamey only scored 9 points, by which I mean he only had to score 9 points\
• Mike Tisdale is by far the tallest person on the court
• Last time around Iowa only scored 15 points in the first half, and very nearly only scored 10
• Todd Lickliter is coaching the Hawkeyes
• John Lickliter is getting significant minutes

Now that I look at things with a little perspective, I do feel somewhat better about the Illini's chances tonight.

Tip off at 7:30 on the BTN