Okay, so things went, for the most part, as planned against Michigan Tuesday night. And by that I mean we won, which is the only thing that matters, brick fest and turnovers aside, it brought the Illini to 18 wins and out of a two game losing streak.

18 wins, three regular season matches to go, and one Big Ten tournament game.  You want to get to 20 wins? That means going 2-2 against Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin (most likely twice) an equation that gets a lot easier if you beat the one team that isn't currently ranked out of that bunch, the suddenly resurgent Golden Gophers.

I can predict three things for sure on Saturday. Lawrence Westbrook and Blake Hoffarber shooting up threes from all over the court, Ralph Sampson being big and strong, and a full court press. At several points this year, the Illini have either fallen very hard to each of these strengths, or dramatically overcome them to an amazing victory.

The Illini were boned by the full court press of Mizzou, but overcame it in an epic comeback against Clemson (more on this in a moment,)

I think we all know what happened when the Illini let Diebler start chucking uncontested threes two weeks ago. But the Illini have likewise beaten Northwestern and Wisconsin which both are entirely too dependent on the 3-ball.

They have been killed by MSU and likewise taken them down, Dancing Bear and all.

So, we know the Illini can win, but will they?

In at least two out of the three above, the Illini have improved drastically .

The problem the Illini faced with big men was an inability to defend them in the low post. once Mike Tisdale disciplined himself to not committing cheap fouls, the 7 footer has adjusted to the bruising he is going to take in Big Ten play. When he is in the game it is at the very least difficult for opposing centers to get positioned on offense, which is occasionally all it takes to dramatically reduce their effectiveness. The Illini have had trouble with Sampson before, but I think Tis is up to the challenge.

The problems the Illini have had with the press have always been in decision making, Picking up a dribble in the worst places, not enough people coming back to help, and worst of all, making bad passes. Coming off of a 17 turnover game this should be a concern. However there is exactly one player, in Demetri McCamey who knows what the hell to do when pressed. So long as he is the only one to bring the ball down the court at all, there should not be a problem. That means no Jeff, sorry man, but you pick up your dribble at the worst times.

As for the three pointers. Well that can still kill us. The perimeter defense needs to pick up, and the rotations on picks and help defense need to be crisp. And for the love of God, do not lose track of Westbrook or Hoffarber behind the arc, they are both shooting near 50% from range. I do not want to get Dieblered again.

Offensively, this game is going to come down to taking care of the ball and finding the open man. If Demetri is feeling his shooting groove, that is great, but his ability to find the open Mike Davis or Mike Tisdale is even more valuable. Throw in a suddenly very productive D.J. Richardson and you have several people that will hit their open shot, which of course leads to the high field goal percentage. In the end that is the Bruce Weber philosophy in  a nutshell, play tough defense to force down the opponent's shooting percentage, and have an excellent passing PG to increase your team's shooting. Simple right? Don't give up too many turnovers or offensive boards and the numbers are going to favor you. Hopefully that is the case on Saturday.