Alright, it took two wins over two of the worst teams in the conference to pull me out, but I have emerged from my bunker for the time being and at last seriously entertaining thoughts about what this team has to do in order to make the tournament. Today the friend of the blog and SB Nation comrade Chirs Dobbertean has released his weekly Bracketology post, and according to Dobb, the Illini are sitting on the cusp, but are currently out.

I trust Dobbertean's opinion and am surprised somewhat to even see the Illini on the first four out. But taking Dobb's opinion as truth, I think this gives us a pretty good indicator as to what the Illini are going to have to do in order to not be disappointed a month or so from now. One thing that is dragging the Illini is the lack of big quality wins. They have wins over Clemson, Vanderbilt and Northwestern, but only one of those teams is a firmly established top 25 team. Looking ahead to the last 9 games of the regular season, there will be no shortage of opportunities to improve on that area.

Of the 9 remaining regular season games on the schedule a stunning 6 are against currently ranked teams. The big question is, how well will the Illini have to fare in order to comfortably make the field of 65?

First things first, win those 3 games against the unranked teams. Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan have all had some very well publicized troubles as of late and the Illini need not lose these games even more than they need to win them. The math is going to be difficult enough without the easier games breaking the Illini's way. Besides, what determines the difference between a tournament team and a team left out cold is how you play against teams in the middle of the pack. These should be 3 wins, bringing the total wins for the Illini to 17.

I think it is quite clear that a team that only goes 9-9 in the Big Ten and 17-14 overall is not good enough to make the tournament, especially when that means you went o-fer against the top 4 teams. That leaves us with this sobering fact, you are going to have to upset some of these teams. I for one would consider the Illini getting 20 wins before the conference tournament would mean that they wont have to worry all that much. So is 3-3 against the ranked teams possible at this point?

• I am right now going to concede a loss to Wisconsin at the Kohl center. I'm sorry, but Bo Ryan has been dancing the Soulja Boy on the graves of teams that have underestimated him and his team of atomic supermen for years now. Only people who don't know Big Ten basketball mark visits to Madison as a "free win." (*couch Coach K *cough) At the same time though, Wisconsin is not invincible, and taking them down in Champaign on March 6 is completely doable. Home courts matter.
• I think it would be also a little too optimistic to think that the Illini can sweep the Buckeyes now that the Evan Turner battle station is fully operational. It might be naive to think the Illini can take one of these two games, but if we don't think we can win some of these games, they are not a tournament team.
• So this means then that you are going to have to get a win against either Michigan State on Saturday or at Purdue on the 20th. No one said this was going to be easy. A win over either of these two teams would be the signature win of the season and would possibly be a turning point for this team. A win over these teams are unlikely, but not impossible.

So, maybe after a nail biting victory over an Indiana is not the best time to be suggesting the Illini can take down some of the best teams in the conference over a stretch that could break a lot of teams. I will stress this though, it is not a prediction it is a prescription. It is not impossible for the Illini to make the tournament without doing at least the above; the Big Ten tournament is of course always a hope for even the most terrible of Big Ten teams, but not something we should be putting too much hope into. Its going to be an interesting month to say the least for the Bruce and the Illini, either very bad, or possibly very good. Ask me again on March 6th what I think of their tournament chances.