Friday gut thinking: In which I use Phil Steele to predict Illini vs Mizzou

Now I am not good with math, numbers, charts or graphics. I wouldn't even say that I am a facts man, I like to go with my gut on things . I shoot from the hip as it were. During basketball season when I look at tempo- free analyses of  games my eyes roll to the back of my head and I wake up a half hour later with real bad nose bleed.

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Lets take a look at the overall power rankings that Dr Phil Steele has for each of our teams today. Phil's Power Poll is ranking that Phil makes for teams based on their pure talent and abilities, without considering schedule. Phil is super high on Illinois this year, having us rise like a phoenix all the way to #18 in the power ranking. Mizzou on the other hand falls like Icarus down to #57 behind even Kansas State. (Hmm I think thats one too many mythological comparisons.) In my admittedly all too simple method of determining the winner 18>57 thus the Illini win forever.

What, you want more? I think you are missing the point of gut thinking. Its mostly gut and very little thinking. Fine you want more, lets go another level down to unit matchups.

Illinois has the #9 QB throwing to the #2 set of receivers against a defense that ranked #90 in pass efficiency defense rankings (admittedly Texas, OU, OSU and Kansas may account to how far down that fell.)

I predict points shall result from this matchup.

As far as the Mizzou passing vs our defense, I will admit there is a lack of hard  evidence here, (Phill only ranks units out to the top 33 and sadly both sides have failed to make it that high in any unit at hand. I can however point out that the top 3 receivers in terms of yards are gone from Missouri, along with Chase Daniel who carried this program like Atlas carried the world. (Hmm, I definitely need to stop now) Daniel's replacement, a QB that has, in his entire short career gone 5 for 13 for 43 yards. With the Illini on the other hand at least you know what you are getting. We return 3/4's of the starters return to a secondary that was admittedly poor in the pass def rankings at #85. (Still better than 90! Whoo!) At the very least Illinois has the edge of experience here, where Mizzou is very unproven offensively with the exception of Derrick Washington.

As for Derrick Washington, (Phil's #35 RB) he will be running into PS ranked #44 DT in Josh Brent and #7 MLB Martez Wilson. Also Corey Liuget will be there, and he is good. My gut tells me, that we will be better against the run this year. And my gut as we have discussed, is our compass for this game.

Most of all we should say that overall Phil Steele has Illinois as his most improved team this year, and he has Missouri having a losing season. As he often says, he does nothing but football 365 days a year, and I trust him.

The best thing about football, that you have in no other aspects of life, is that there is finality. Tomorrow afternoon we will have resolution about this game and all of our predictions will be jack.