The case for an Illini win against Ohio State, (its a stretch I know)

There are many types of fans in this world. There are cynics, starry eyed merry men, band wagoners. grumpy old cranks, and me: the eternal optimist.

Look I don't want to make it sound like I have to think Illinois will have a good game on Saturday because its my job. (although a win is always good for site traffic, YOU HEAR ME ZOOK!?!?!) But I think I do have some at least half way credible evidence that this team  has not shown its true colors yet.  I am really just unwilling to accept that this team is in reality as inept as it looked against Missouri. I don't know what was to blame, offensive play calling, defensive breakdowns, swine flu, voodoo curses or even good old fashioned bad luck.  This offense returns nearly everyone of consequence from last year, you can't tell me that they all got worse.

So I am then completely willing to chalk Missouri up as an aberration, and Illinois State as moot because we saw an offense run mostly by Eddie McGee going up against a 1-AA defense. This offense has a sample size that is almost negligible. There have only been about 4 total plays in which the two best players have even been on the field at the same time. As far as I am concerned this team is starting from a blank slate. The record is 1-1 and it is hardly a lost season.

I suggest, for the sake of our collective mental stability, we wait and see how the next couple of games shake out. We don't know how good anyone is in the Big Ten just yet. Hell, by record alone we have to assume that Indiana at 3-0 is the far superior team to Michigan State at 1-2. (try not to laugh so hard your nose bleeds at that thought.)

We do know however that the Buckeyes can indeed lose. They lost to USC in a final minutes drive, and they nearly lost to Navy in week 1. The common thread in both of these is a very good running game, granted in two different forms. It seems to me that of all things, this Ohio State team is vulnerable against a strong running game, particularly in option and end read situations (QB keeper straight up the middle much?)

I will of course grant you that Ohio State kept Toledo to 13 total rushing yards last week, but don't pat yourselves on the back too hard, Buckeyes, Toledo gave up 50+ points to Purdue, and the mighty Terl Pryor threw 2 INTS into that MAC defense. You have to take the whole game, good and bad.

Maybe I'm grasping at straws here up I believe that if the running game comes out strong against OSU, and the passing lanes are opened with the threat of the run, there is no reason that this Illini team can't score points against Ohio State. We do still have some real talent on offense, and I fully believe that the gap in quality between these two teams in 2009 is closer than it was in '08 and in '07. The question is whether or not the talent can get its shit together and perform like it has in the past.

I don't know how the pass defense is going to be this week, or frankly any week from here on out. And I do fear that with the strength of our defense being the defensive line, and its weakness being the secondary, you could see alot of points scored against us. I am no Chris Brown of smart football, but I do know that with some mobile QB's in Pryor's style, where they may be even more of a threat with their legs than their arm, a defensive line may be kept back in a contain, mostly neutralizing the advantage we might have there. The result here is giving the QB alot of time to throw, but no where to run. I have a feeling that this would result in alot of Buckeyes being open deep and the secondary getting torched.

The other option is to play the D line like we would any passing QB, get up field as fast as possible with the front four and try and sack him or force him to make a bad throw or throw it away. The problem is that Pryor is very fast, and forcing him out of the pocket and daring him to run for yards will probably also result in a tough day for the defense. If that's the way that Zook decides to go, you had better hope that Russell Ellington and Ian Thomas, because they are going to be responsible for corralling Pryor out of the pocket.

So that's where we stand possibly on the edge of a shoot out. Its a position i am sure the Illini will be getting used to after the games we saw last year. I have confidence though, that a fully healthy and poised Illini offense can keep this team in a game with just about anyone, provided it doesn't shoot itself in the foot.