Juice Williams for Heisman in 2009. Why not?

Before you jump through your computer screen and try and knock some sense into me, hear me out.  I know that in the previous 3 seasons the most common complaint about Juice has been his passing ability. But, unsurprisingly, with each year of experience and coaching behind him, he has improved.

Before I go any further I am going to have to ask you to suspend your disbelief for a Juice Williams Heisman scenario. This post isn't an argument for him winning it as much as lets say an argument for the possibility not being completely absurd. We all know that since this an award decided by media types, with the hype given to Tebow, Bradford and McCoy it is very unlikely that Juice could beat any of the three, even if he has a better season. But lets just pretend that this whole Heisman charade isn't predetermined.

As I mentioned before Juice has improved steadily in his passing game, so can use those statistical improvements as a predictor for this year's performance. Along the same lines, since the top three running backs from last year are back and we can assume they have improved as well the running game that will support Juice we would assume will be better. This is of course a best case scenario, but players don't win the Heisman, without alot of other factors going in their favor.

Lets start with the stats question. Did you know that Juice actually threw for more yards last year than Tim Tebow? He also ran for more yards than Colt McCoy. Last year Juice threw for 3,173 yards and rushed for 719 more. He had a completion percentage of 57% and threw 22 touchdowns, while running for 5. The big albatross around his neck of course is the 16 INTs.

For a Heisman type season to be possible these numbers all do need to improve. Last year was a huge jump in passing yards for Juice, if for no other reason than he threw the ball 100 more times last year than in 07, something I doubt we will see happen again. Along those same lines, Juice also had to run 10 more times last year, for less yards than in the previous year. All together, the offense was much more dependent on Juice than when it had Rashard at RB to take some pressure of of him.

For Juice to have a Heisman season we don't need another Rashard in the backfield, but we do need a legitimate enough run threat for the end read plays to be effective like they were in '07. Let us assume that the offense is more balanced and the pressure on Juice to take all  of the offense on his back is lessened. This could lead to Juice not forcing as many throws and hopefully improving the completion % and his INTs.

The one common thread among the big three Heisman candidates this season is a sky high QB ratings of all 3. Each sits near 170 from last  year. Thanks to the handy Passer rating calculator, we can see what it takes for Juice to make it up to that magic Heisman number.

By reducing the attempts down to about 350, (from 380) and allowing for a completion % of about 65, with the yards and TDs the same it improves to a rating of 152 (up from 138 last year)

Reduce the number of INTs by half and the number rises to 157. Which leaves only Touchdowns for Juice to improve. Tebow McCoy and Bradford have huge numbers of TDs on their record.(all over 30 passing TDs) With a jump from 13 to 22 last year, it is not completely unreasonable to say that Juice could improve to 30 this year. Which brings his passer rating to 165, well within range of a New York trip.

With stats like these it is not hard to see that the Illini would have a great season. All of these statistical improvements are well within the realm of possibility, as is I would say, the Heisman trophy