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So how good is this team really?

It was mentioned again during the CBS broadcast Sunday afternoon, that this team is, based on talent "over achieving" and that "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts." Two of the most cliched terms used in all of sports, which can be taken as a knock against the talent level of a team (based mostly on player stats) or it can be extremely complimentary of a coaching staff. It has been argued elsewhere that a team that relies on the system and tight teamwork will beat teams that are far more talented than themselves, but at a certain point if players cannot matchup one on one they are will lose to the team with more talent.

 

So is that the case with the Illini? Did it find in Michigan State's Kalin Lucas a player that can simply overcome whatever the defense could offer? Is Illinois playing at a level beyond what the stat sheet and projected player talent would predict. More importantly, if Illinois is playing over its head, what will its tournament prosepects be?

Star-divide

If you take each player as an individual you get a point guard who doesn't score too much, a center who doesn't get very many rebounds, a guard who can spot up threes but doesn't really make his own shot, a could be superstar who is streaky, and Mike Davis. Mike Davis gets double doubles like a mad man, but his doubles are closer to 14 points 10 rebounds, not a Harangody or Blake Griffith like 25 and 16.

It is a team of players that each have a flaw to their game. In some cases its a talent gap, in some the youth or maturity factor, for some it is a question of weight and strength. Through all of it though, this team has 23 wins, is in third place in the Big Ten and is absolutely going to the NCAA tournament. Credit has to be given, over and over again to Bruce Weber.

Some individual weakness can be masked and covered by good coaching, and Bruce is among the best. Have trouble scoring consistently? Play stifling defense  and slow the game down. With two big men that don't really have the size to bang it out down low,  have them take a step back and take J's or hook shots. Chester Frazier rarely scores in double figures, but that doesn't mean hee can't lead the team in assists, steals and possibly even win defensive player of the year.

Not having a go to scorer can burn a team in key situations, like it often did last year, but with consistent scoring spread among four players scoring droughts by individual players is masked by the play of the rest of the team. You don't end up then in a situation like Kentucky, where a player like Jodie Meeks can go off for 40 in a night and still lose.

As far as the tournament is concerned, I am optimistic. This team should be able, as it has played for most of the year, to make the Sweet Sixteen. The balanced scoring of the team makes the team  very difficult to defend, because there is no one player that is most important to stop. Mike Davis, when  given space to shoot can go off on a team and Meacham and McCamey can make three's if an opponent is playing soft defense.

Illinois, and Chester in particular will play stifling defense, and for teams that rely too much on one player, this could mean a struggling offense. There is a chance of course that the team could run into a player that no matter how well you defend him he will score, think Stephan Curry in last years tourney. But as Jay Bilas will tell you, you reduce the damage a player like that can do by slowing down the game, use the clock and make every possession valuable.

I have every confidence that this team can be successful in the tournament. Bruce Weber knows how to game plan with the best in the country, and if the players listen to him, there will be some very real results as this month goes on.

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I'm not sure

I think this team is overachieving. While I think they can win on any given night, what will ultimately do them in is the fact that they run into extended stretches where they can’t score, particularly in crunch times.

But with the stout defense and balanced scoring, it wouldn’t surprise me if they made a shocking deep run although it wouldn’t be all that surprising if they were one and done. They are just that kind of team.

by illini on Mar 4, 2009 6:01 PM CST reply actions  

I hate to say it

but I think the Illini will make an early exit come tourney time. They are lacking some serious depth and ability coming off the bench. Keller can give some quality minutes, but Legion has yet to adjust and JJ is basically a slightly smaller version of Chez with less hustle. Brock can come off the bench and provide that “spark,” but he is basically one of those guys who has to play his hardest and be at the very top of his game to even be mediocre. At the end of the season, everyone starts to get tired, and teams without the depth to keep their starters fresh go home.

"Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them."

by Cruiser on Mar 5, 2009 12:33 AM CST reply actions  

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