Well, I lied yesterday, Illini implosion will live on into the offseason.

Yesterday I wrote my rather nostalgic and I will admit, overly kind review of the 2009 Illini football season. I read it again a few moments ago and I seem to have come across slightly resigned to the facts of Illini mediocrity and under achievement.  I was resigned to that fate because of the months old announcement from Athletic Director Ron Guenther that regardless of the win/loss record, Zook would be returning for the 2010 season. I had no reason to believe otherwise. No reason that is, until I started seeing stories like this flash across my twitter. (HT/TFJ: A Lion Eye)

For those of you who don't click links to for fear of internet redirect hell, I will summarize. The boosters are unhappy that Zook has been given another year to try and "right the ship." They are apparently pressuring Ron Guenther to no small degree to try and make the move and to do it soon. As we have tried to do from time to time here on HTTO, it is helpful to think of the Zook coaching situation as a math problem. At what point is the rather sizable buyout of something like 5 million dollars for Zook and the also sizable contract for the new coach outweighed by the reduced income from ticket sales and other football contingent income?  Maybe we should break this down into the factors in favor of Zook's ouster and for his remaining put.

In the case for Zook:

• Zook has a large buyout for his contract, somewhere between 5 and 7 million, by our unscientific speculation based on salary x years.
• Ron Zook did take the team to a Rose Bowl
• As proved by 2005 and 2006, a coaching change can be devastating to a program
• Ron Zook has delivered as far as recruiting is concerned.
• Zook is Guenther's personal pick, and with only a provisional President and a brand new board of trustees to answer to, the football operations have been placed squarely in his control. Guenther is supposedly quite close to retiring in the next several years, so he really has no to answer to at this point.

The case for "a new direction"

• No one, that is except for the boosters, the people who have been shoveling their money into the furnace that is the Illini football team over these last several years in amounts far beyond what I make writing this humble blog. As a booster reportedly said "If we ran our business the way they ran that football program, we’d be bankrupt. It’s not going in a positive direction. You don’t reward mediocrity in business. You don’t reward mediocrity in coaching.’’ We aren't like Notre Dame who can buy and sell coaches with seemingly no regard to cost, but these boosters do provide a rather large chunk of cash to the program, and thus have no small say in its workings.
  
• Season ticket sales are of course a market force against retaining Zook, unlike with pro teams fans actually can affect the direction of a college program by giving votes of no confidence with their wallets. According to Bob Asmussen earlier this week, he estimated that something along the lines of 10,000 fewer people will purchase season tickets next season, down from the 40,000 or so that were sold this season. That many season tickets means a very large loss of revenue, as in millions of dollars.
• As noted earlier, a coaching change could set the progress of a program back for years, the following quote, if true, may undercut that potential problem. From Supinie "According to media reports, sophomore wide receivers A.J. Jenkins and Cordale Scott and sophomore tight end Hubie Graham are leaving the program, and talented defensive tackle Corey Liuget is also considering a transfer." If we lose Liuget, Liuget, I really don't know how this team can make it back to a bowl next year.
• As far as recruiting goes, we have a very small class right now, and many already are admitting that Zook is going to have to go heavy into the JUCO route in order to fill up the class for next year. To make matters worse the best recruit has already defected to Iowa, and another Four-star corner back Corey Coope, is reportedly looking at the shiny new Brian Kelly coached Notre Dame.

By my admittedly only somewhat informed count, the factors in favor of Zook leaving are outweighing his retention. The problem is, the insulated role that Guenther enjoys matters probably most of all. In the end it is going to be his choice, as I noted, his job is not on the line for this, and no one above him has apparently thus far intervened into his affairs regarding football. It is solely in his hands.  I have to admit though, this is the first real credible sign that Guenther is getting any real pressure to fire Zook, which is miles further along than I ever thought we would be. There is, at the very least a chance Zook may be fired, and if he going to be it will happen soon. So stay tuned, the off season could be just as unpredictable as the regular season.